Research Articles

FUTURE STUDIES

The Future Studies research section presents detailed investigations into forecasting methodology and its practical application. Each article examines a specific tool or technique in the forecaster's arsenal, from Bayesian probability updating and superforecaster methodology to constraint graph simulation and adversarial falsification. The uranium market worked example demonstrates these tools applied to a real prediction problem.

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Bayesian Updating
Prior-to-posterior probability revision for sequential evidence integration

Superforecasters
What distinguishes the best human forecasters from the rest

Temporal Confidence
How prediction accuracy decays with time horizon

Constraint Graph Simulation
Dependency networks for technology forecasting and bottleneck identification

Adversarial Falsification
Structured attempts to disprove predictions before they resolve

Capital Cycles
Boom-bust dynamics in commodity and infrastructure investment

From Inference to Simulation
Bridging statistical models and agent-based simulation

Uranium — A Worked Example
Full forecasting pipeline applied to the uranium market